Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan vs. AS Roma end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d7d6bfecb87e486f82c5ef10f2dee4fc5b414b3f74d7af6ae832312db47c7a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 67c | 5,998$4,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.07 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60de…1e1bbacked No | 65c | 4,800$3,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 4,687$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.94 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…8cc8backed No | 70c | 4,106$2,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…76e0backed Yes | 32c | 3,419$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 33c | 3,000$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.26 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 28c | 2,702$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.34 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…a363backed No | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4e…e5b7backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 68c | 981.87$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.95 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 69c | 926$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.06 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 34c | 882.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 67c | 872.7$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 78c | 761.93$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.02 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 31c | 645.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…4996backed No | 75c | 588$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 50c | 532.27$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 66c | 322.45$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25f…a9e9backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…716bbacked Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 16c | 285.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 18c | 281$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…606fbacked Yes | 25c | 221.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed Yes | 28c | 205.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 68c | 181$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked No | 56c | 179.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 32c | 157.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 65c | 153.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…b8bdbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…9d01backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5f…8869backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7630backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9d05backed Yes | 30c | 106.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…9388backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…6840backed Yes | 34c | 91.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -77%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 255 | 56.5%144 W · 111 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 31c | 87.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ac…75ebbacked Yes | 33c | 80.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1252…da0bbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…b6eabacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed Yes | 33c | 66.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…dc27backed Yes | 32c | 66.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…1806backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…066bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…507cbacked Yes | 33c | 59.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…bc30backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…39a4backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…fccfbacked Yes | 32c | 40.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…d0e7backed Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4496…606abacked Yes | 31c | 32.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…1bdfbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f45…2149backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…111fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11a…5777backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…5bc3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…9486backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 69c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf957…70febacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan vs. AS Roma end in a draw?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-02?Yes won
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.