NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Wizards
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e0630945993790970fa11ac903af5a422e56d57fdf2838c3f6ee01ab7efbd6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Wizards | 15c | 8,797$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.84 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 22c | 6,738$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.06 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Cavaliers | 78c | 4,956$3,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.36 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Cavaliers | 78c | 4,055$3,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.82 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba48…6d5fbacked Wizards | 15c | 1,319$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…1a3abacked Cavaliers | 79c | 1,319$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Cavaliers | 80c | 988.37$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.67 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcc…632fbacked Wizards | 22c | 970.86$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed Wizards | 19c | 751.16$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Wizards | 23c | 652.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…c635backed Wizards | 20c | 595.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…bbfabacked Cavaliers | 79c | 594.98$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0952…786dbacked Wizards | 21c | 469.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Cavaliers | 79c | 444$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Cavaliers | 78c | 399.96$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc136…0c3bbacked Wizards | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…c157backed Wizards | 12c | 270$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Wizards | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 208 | 51.4%107 W · 101 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Wizards | 18c | 199.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked Wizards | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Wizards | 14c | 154.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed Cavaliers | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…b5f4backed Cavaliers | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Wizards | 16c | 131.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe26c…c7b2backed Wizards | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Wizards | 19c | 120.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5eaabacked Wizards | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Wizards | 19c | 98.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 930 | 41.9%390 W · 540 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd123…4f07backed Wizards | 16c | 96.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Wizards | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…dc5abacked Wizards | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…5536backed Wizards | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5466…9e76backed Wizards | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Wizards | 17c | 63.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cavaliers | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Wizards | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Cavaliers | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Cavaliers | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Cavaliers | 80c | 35.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Cavaliers | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…8bbbbacked Cavaliers | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.