NFL · resolved market
Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Eagles Spread
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e07b934f9b98af1082299ad998940ec2b09cf191ec27b9a665336e69f19d48d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eagles +1.5of Chiefs -1.5 , Eagles +1.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Eagles +1.5 | 51c | 2,226$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.7 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…3ba7backed Chiefs -1.5 | 49c | 1,736$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.57 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…cc37backed Chiefs -1.5 | 49c | 1,018$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Eagles +1.5 | 51c | 731.82$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.28 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 684.1$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.9 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Eagles +1.5 | 51c | 538.96$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.09 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked Chiefs -1.5 | 47c | 535.64$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.08 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Chiefs -1.5 | 49c | 519.23$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.23 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 434.24$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…59abbacked Chiefs -1.5 | 50c | 403.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…ab95backed Chiefs -1.5 | 49c | 365.69$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Chiefs -1.5 | 49c | 294.69$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.65 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Eagles +1.5 | 51c | 294.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.63 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 289.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.76 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Eagles +1.5 | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…2310backed Chiefs -1.5 | 50c | 204.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Chiefs -1.5 | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…6638backed Chiefs -1.5 | 48c | 198$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2273…a0ecbacked Eagles +1.5 | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad0…8d6dbacked Eagles +1.5 | 53c | 168.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Eagles +1.5 | 50c | 160.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…9b20backed Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 159.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…c5c3backed Chiefs -1.5 | 48c | 145$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f3…4201backed Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 145$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cc…0d55backed Chiefs -1.5 | 49c | 131.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21c…0beabacked Chiefs -1.5 | 49c | 131.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d95…4fe1backed Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8c…9f0fbacked Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 103$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…dcadbacked Chiefs -1.5 | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Eagles +1.5 | 51c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1a…b35cbacked Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 95.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…2353backed Eagles +1.5 | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Eagles +1.5 | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1dc9backed Chiefs -1.5 | 50c | 61.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…b2c1backed Chiefs -1.5 | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Eagles +1.5 | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11e6…bc81backed Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Chiefs -1.5 | 47c | 45.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Chiefs -1.5 | 46c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Chiefs -1.5 | 51c | 39.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 64.6%126 W · 69 L | +12.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…70c5backed Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ae…0546backed Eagles +1.5 | 53c | 37.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdf…d2f3backed Chiefs -1.5 | 49c | 29.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…0414backed Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 24.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe230…30c7backed Chiefs -1.5 | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf663…2535backed Eagles +1.5 | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…f7dabacked Chiefs -1.5 | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a37…5cc3backed Eagles +1.5 | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…b60abacked Eagles +1.5 | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.