La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e13f19f6d700ee634c08802d5123887abe33fa5896b7ec63299de07401bd227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 4,094$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.69 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 62c | 3,103$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.93 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +15.1wins | +0.30per pick | 14cpaid | +663.6%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 1,865$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.07 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 1,781$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.23 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…b792backed No | 72c | 1,737$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab6…82c8backed No | 72c | 1,451$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 39c | 1,428$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.08 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 76c | 1,193$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.74 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f99cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 22c | 964.08$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.7 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 69c | 776.24$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.81 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…b903backed Yes | 79c | 744.3$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 38c | 631.04$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked No | 69c | 563.99$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.84 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 50c | 558$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 72c | 514$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.92 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 498.06$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 20c | 405.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.19 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 28c | 306.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 71c | 286.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.23 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 44c | 253.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.55 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Yes | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 28c | 215$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -5.6wins | -0.40per pick | 55cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c33…07fdbacked No | 72c | 212.5$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes | 80c | 195$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 25c | 193$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fec…60b3backed No | 72c | 188.89$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…2370backed No | 72c | 176.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 21c | 159.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034d…9a99backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…0076backed No | 72c | 148.61$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 29c | 136.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 9c | 120.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…3f7abacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…9822backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 29c | 104.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…6129backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 30c | 91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd9…230abacked No | 72c | 90.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fd…b25bbacked No | 72c | 87.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…1d29backed No | 72c | 84.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5089…96cdbacked No | 72c | 81.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…74f4backed No | 72c | 73.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 30c | 73.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 71c | 69.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 306 | 34.6%106 W · 200 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…27d7backed No | 72c | 52.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…e0c1backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafe…b608backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 170 | 36.5%62 W · 108 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 29c | 35.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…f663backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…ae60backed Yes | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…5111backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 309 | 56%173 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 285 | 58.2%166 W · 119 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 71c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 144 | 62.5%90 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal end in a draw?this page
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-30?No won
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.