Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e29cc515f2580bad4770de11f1bbe1d02d289d7cfadd42048acbc15d913b2ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,648 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 67c | 25,936$17,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,533.78 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 33c | 21,015$6,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,934.91 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 5,559$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.93 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 33c | 1,299$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.57 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 33c | 968.53$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.61 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 26c | 854.41$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.19 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Under | 22c | 798.84$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 68c | 455.88$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.88 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…1ec9backed Over | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 76c | 323.67$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 21c | 237.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Under | 34c | 226.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 208.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 32c | 138.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 22c | 137.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 128.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 79cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 19c | 111.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 67c | 111$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 33c | 111$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…8452backed Under | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Over | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 21c | 66.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 80c | 62.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…4632backed Under | 26c | 62.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Under | 35c | 54.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Over | 71c | 50.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Over | 80c | 49.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…e2a0backed Under | 38c | 42.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 32c | 34.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Under | 32c | 33.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -8.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…da3fbacked Over | 63c | 23.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 71c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 72c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Over | 74c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)AS Monaco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.