South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e364fce95f81cdebc617a06ee530ba88469d34bf87f92ec4d5d5f279fdf1cc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 29c | 3,416$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.64 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 1,494$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.13 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 71c | 945$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.05 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 572.45$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.26 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 492.33$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.74 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 288.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 71c | 267.61$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 29c | 239.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 71c | 213.47$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked Yes | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 29c | 136.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 67c | 130.83$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 30c | 119.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 106$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…96fbbacked No | 68c | 92.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 31c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 74.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 30c | 71.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Yes | 30c | 68.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 70c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 34c | 44.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 43.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed No | 72c | 43.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 35c | 28.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead9…27d2backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 69c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-08-16?No won
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.