World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the January Meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e3949dc2c93a79a66b2eb6e587d907af0ce9873f5e7b873b6f1d0c43cbff88a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 2c | 5,152$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 3,178$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 13c | 1,770$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.65 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 9c | 1,575$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…3101backed Yes | 75c | 1,278$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 2c | 667.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 600.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 8c | 478.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 25c | 402.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 5c | 298.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 9c | 287.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…6b74backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 22c | 122.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 50cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 79.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…3681backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…755cbacked Yes | 67c | 50.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the January Meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the January Meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the January Meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.