TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs KT Rolster (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
KT Rolsterof OKSavingsBank BRION, KT Rolster
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$155,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$166,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,920 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3aab…9d46backed KT Rolster12c20,488$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,118.191315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked KT Rolster17c11,287$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,388.952,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed KT Rolster35c11,082$3,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,163.761,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f79…fefbbacked OKSavingsBank BRION68c10,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,800650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf45e…6460backed KT Rolster32c10,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,800540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked KT Rolster26c9,083$2,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,723.9919041.1%78 W · 112 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked KT Rolster22c8,962$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,996.3412132.2%39 W · 82 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf07…80c3backed OKSavingsBank BRION64c7,771$5,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,002.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed OKSavingsBank BRION65c7,204$4,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,702.6248742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked OKSavingsBank BRION72c5,012$3,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,607.6932350.8%164 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed KT Rolster32c4,848$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,285.711,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x115c…4f55backed KT Rolster51c2,142$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.484100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5652…c7b4backed OKSavingsBank BRION67c1,963$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.726165.6%40 W · 21 L+8.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed OKSavingsBank BRION68c1,962$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.51,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked KT Rolster25c1,782$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.081,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedfd…1432backed OKSavingsBank BRION73c1,736$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2594139%16 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked KT Rolster31c1,541$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.3285046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked KT Rolster33c1,247$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.6913543%58 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed KT Rolster35c1,157$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.3754129.9%162 W · 379 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed OKSavingsBank BRION71c1,082$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.253,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…964dbacked OKSavingsBank BRION4c1,080$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.38220%0 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…93d7backed OKSavingsBank BRION70c1,051$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.926467.2%43 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked OKSavingsBank BRION74c1,047$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.468438.1%32 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked OKSavingsBank BRION72c1,040$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.844751%228 W · 219 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1329…0b4bbacked KT Rolster4c1,015$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.621711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4635…9f6fbacked OKSavingsBank BRION64c1,011$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6482360.9%14 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed KT Rolster23c1,000$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.1275738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed KT Rolster28c977.34$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.4350845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked KT Rolster35c777$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.051,61148.4%780 W · 831 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked OKSavingsBank BRION58c774$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.823751.5%122 W · 115 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cff…6471backed OKSavingsBank BRION68c749.95$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.9617241.9%72 W · 100 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf69…e8a8backed OKSavingsBank BRION80c625$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd4e…1483backed OKSavingsBank BRION60c617.16$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.2530155.5%167 W · 134 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked KT Rolster33c600$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4024744.7%21 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed OKSavingsBank BRION71c599.99$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.9921754.8%119 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4874…6fe9backed KT Rolster26c586.53$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.53862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+67.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed KT Rolster35c572.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.1444335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x862c…4facbacked OKSavingsBank BRION70c571.55$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked OKSavingsBank BRION63c528.99$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2613259.1%78 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed KT Rolster48c511$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.932,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed KT Rolster14c510$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.8223624.6%58 W · 178 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed5d…bc81backed KT Rolster20c504.69$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.697250%36 W · 36 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed KT Rolster34c500$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33027452.2%143 W · 131 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked KT Rolster20c491.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.6121840.4%88 W · 130 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed KT Rolster21c486.61$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.5316934.3%58 W · 111 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION54c474.35$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0411839%46 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked OKSavingsBank BRION66c471.82$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.715756.7%89 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb819…cc67backed KT Rolster32c463.08$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.899054.4%49 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked KT Rolster37c400$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2534748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked KT Rolster27c397.24$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.8359952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed OKSavingsBank BRION33c317$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0514338.5%55 W · 88 L-0.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked OKSavingsBank BRION72c299.98$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9912450%62 W · 62 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed OKSavingsBank BRION77c260.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020563.9%131 W · 74 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked KT Rolster23c260$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20061343.6%267 W · 346 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed OKSavingsBank BRION75c250$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.542852.3%224 W · 204 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb29…358ebacked KT Rolster56c229.13$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.131637.5%6 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.26per pick63cpaid-43.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6f67…e109backed OKSavingsBank BRION63c212.64$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a74…05b2backed KT Rolster20c205.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.47850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f20…87c9backed KT Rolster31c201.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick34cpaid+66.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked KT Rolster20c201.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.991,45613.2%192 W · 1,264 L-111.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed OKSavingsBank BRION74c201.35$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14929856.4%168 W · 130 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed KT Rolster19c201.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.011,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f03…4354backed OKSavingsBank BRION71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed KT Rolster15c199.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.9918046.7%84 W · 96 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x143c…88b9backed OKSavingsBank BRION65c183.47$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12027848.2%134 W · 144 L-11.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa825…2ef0backed OKSavingsBank BRION70c180.88$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6218342.6%78 W · 105 L-14.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa995…1be0backed KT Rolster30c180.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.626256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd631…1b97backed KT Rolster17c172.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.23425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+45.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce1b…b002backed KT Rolster25c158.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.89862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead7…cfe8backed OKSavingsBank BRION64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005438.9%21 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd795…6fcdbacked KT Rolster13c152.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6331435.7%112 W · 202 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9416…9d2cbacked OKSavingsBank BRION75c150$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfdd3…fefabacked OKSavingsBank BRION71c141.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007460.8%45 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed OKSavingsBank BRION72c139.66$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8244738%170 W · 277 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked KT Rolster33c121.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2129335.2%103 W · 190 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8deb…d8e2backed KT Rolster31c117.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.551560%9 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+36.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd19e…fabbbacked OKSavingsBank BRION54c115$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x426a…128bbacked KT Rolster12c111.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.611631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed KT Rolster31c105$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4559647.7%284 W · 312 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcad…0a68backed KT Rolster12c104.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.581346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+78.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked KT Rolster12c103.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.833987%28 W · 370 L-123.7wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-74.3%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0xe5a9…2c34backed OKSavingsBank BRION80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8015441.6%64 W · 90 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked KT Rolster14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.256317.2%97 W · 466 L-16.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaaf…064fbacked KT Rolster28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726735.8%24 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1753backed KT Rolster50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504032.5%13 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed OKSavingsBank BRION55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510533.3%35 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a73…9daabacked KT Rolster45c88.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.891369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…82b4backed KT Rolster46c87.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.141030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed OKSavingsBank BRION62c82.87$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3831643%136 W · 180 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ccf…3ecdbacked KT Rolster28c82.17$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.941020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-43.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked KT Rolster37c82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2695551.7%494 W · 461 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de5…a510backed OKSavingsBank BRION56c80$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked KT Rolster41c75.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3119640.3%79 W · 117 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7163…3601backed KT Rolster34c74.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.694953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba48…907cbacked KT Rolster49c71.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4398663.6%627 W · 359 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0424…95ddbacked OKSavingsBank BRION71c70.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501650%8 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed OKSavingsBank BRION55c69.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0836334.4%125 W · 238 L-21.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed KT Rolster17c67.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2250643.1%218 W · 288 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fdc…6d51backed OKSavingsBank BRION67c67.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.91573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed KT Rolster30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6792342.7%394 W · 529 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.