Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e52941d2d93d19c4e8ebb998230b998535cff724f99a4c3f441a1c447dd64f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 1,823$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 25c | 571.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.74 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 423.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 8c | 369.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 229.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 25c | 208.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 47c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 198.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 192.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 42c | 191.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 30c | 190$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 78c | 184.78$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 67c | 172.52$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 171.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 28c | 170.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 160.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 159.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 158.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 149.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 119.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 24c | 112.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 103.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 39c | 101.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 32c | 100.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 19c | 96.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 96.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 72c | 95.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 93.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 59c | 84.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 22c | 83.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 21c | 81.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 41c | 77.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 20c | 76.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 35c | 74.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 58c | 71.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 65.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 25c | 61.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 60.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 65c | 59.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 58.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 54.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 28c | 51.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 20c | 50.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 36c | 50.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 32c | 49.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 31c | 49.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 36c | 47.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 46.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 27c | 46.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Yes | 41c | 43.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 27c | 40.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 39.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 31c | 39.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5bdebacked Yes | 31c | 38.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 34.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…2bd6backed Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcb…7c12backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 69c | 31.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 29.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9af1backed No | 75c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 22.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed No | 69c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 69c | 20.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15dc…1f17backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…5475backed No | 64c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 18.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 73c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.