Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x909516217c7a3eaf9595ed7b20215a8796987e0e382e2ddef21b91bea474d1a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ffc…6a23backed Yes | 19c | 532.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 395.78$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 373.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 5c | 327.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…6c94backed No | 80c | 268$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 24c | 267.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 19c | 263.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked No | 78c | 244.37$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 11c | 231.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 226.84$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 24c | 226.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 12c | 222.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 9c | 212.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 207.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 20c | 190$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 20c | 187.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…e685backed Yes | 7c | 183.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 182.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 181.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 175.29$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efb…04afbacked Yes | 7c | 174.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 24c | 164.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 159.19$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 155$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 32c | 152.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 16c | 145.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…f362backed Yes | 35c | 140.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 10c | 127.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 123.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 12c | 119.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 73c | 117$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 112.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 109.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 107$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e3…2791backed Yes | 23c | 105.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2e…0690backed Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 27c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 102.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb910…ac48backed Yes | 23c | 98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 94.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 93.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 16c | 93.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 92.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c1…51f6backed Yes | 20c | 92.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 28c | 88.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…0327backed Yes | 29c | 87.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 28c | 81.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Yes | 23c | 77.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 75.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 73.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 72.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 72c | 64.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 25c | 61.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed Yes | 19c | 55.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 25c | 55.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 27c | 54.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 30c | 54.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 29c | 52.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 29c | 48.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…bb12backed No | 77c | 47.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…364fbacked Yes | 28c | 38.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…d60abacked No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…087fbacked No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…2071backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 66c | 26.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 79c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x026f…3cfcbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…07d0backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.