Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37d62efde849acf03d50e8194205c43e7f9e29b3285d2ff8238e067951e32a1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 23c | 479.04$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 4c | 475.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 336.38$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.28 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 313.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 227.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.14 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 212.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 209.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 34c | 199.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 191.8$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 40c | 190$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 18c | 181.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 168.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 165$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 151.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…636dbacked No | 42c | 137.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 39c | 136.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 126.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 118.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 40c | 117.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 102.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 40c | 100.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 99.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 98.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 96.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 64c | 90.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 38c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 41c | 85.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 47c | 85.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 81.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 60c | 80.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 39c | 77.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 42c | 71.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 46c | 65.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 46c | 64.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 35c | 60.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 42c | 59.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 64c | 54.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 38c | 52.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 40c | 51.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 36c | 50.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 41c | 49.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 62c | 45.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 45c | 44.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 63c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 67c | 41.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 69c | 39.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 38.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 38.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 67c | 37.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…13dabacked Yes | 39c | 35.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 47c | 31.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 63c | 31.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked No | 63c | 31.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…5024backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…06c5backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 44c | 28.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…7ed9backed Yes | 55c | 27.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 60c | 25.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4467…cbfcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 61c | 24.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 20.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 17.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 68c | 16.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 68c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…d925backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.