MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e7d311dc179e7cd0c4ef8285c28b08cefec530a51f9c1090263504948d44318
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 31c | 28,456$8,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,719.44 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 28c | 24,127$6,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,726.03 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 57c | 13,313$7,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,724.55 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…4201backed Over | 68c | 10,000$6,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,800 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 69c | 8,458$5,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,868.26 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…87b5backed Under | 38c | 2,379$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…f058backed Under | 64c | 1,633$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.69 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 1,628$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.17 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…8374backed Under | 57c | 1,060$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.99 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Over | 65c | 240$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.2 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 51c | 176.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.55 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 176.18$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 39c | 99.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 59c | 65.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 67c | 64.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 69c | 56.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 30c | 56.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Over | 69c | 22.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…2bafbacked Under | 60c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed Under | 73c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.