MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38b6a43ba360d62cf1f099c167d335430f728665f59bba9432d780c942d15a8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Over | 40c | 21,518$8,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,916.23 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 11,482$6,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,887.39 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 9,511$5,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,679.07 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 40c | 8,643$3,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,183.61 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 60c | 1,750$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 1,636$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.77 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa7…977abacked Under | 1c | 1,605$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…ab54backed Under | 1c | 1,605$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 60c | 1,600$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 60c | 1,590$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.06 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…3f3fbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 42c | 953.32$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.27 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 58c | 864.03$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.55 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 841.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 60c | 780$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 698.26$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.17 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 58c | 640$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.2 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 62c | 524$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.88 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 61c | 506$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 45c | 500$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 8c | 492.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 60c | 416$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed Over | 50c | 260$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 39c | 258$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.98 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 40c | 237.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.54 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 61c | 209$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 424 | 55.4%235 W · 189 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 60c | 141.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 47c | 130.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Under | 62c | 113.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 112.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Over | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 42c | 99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 56c | 82.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Over | 39c | 77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Under | 19c | 54.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 60c | 47.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 44.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 61c | 28.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 60c | 25.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.