MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe458c260b5f62e626083d86fe02ab8864aa279dd875ba1f48fa3ceb1a30a801b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae9…fef2backed No | 54c | 5,448$2,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,923.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 47c | 5,262$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,806.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 53c | 2,220$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.71 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked No | 53c | 1,931$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.1 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 46c | 1,705$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.58 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 47c | 1,340$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed No | 54c | 1,299$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 48c | 1,192$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.84 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Yes | 46c | 700$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 47c | 686.56$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.88 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 8c | 455$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 55c | 347.57$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.03 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 277.21$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 8c | 241.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…8374backed Yes | 48c | 229.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 45c | 195.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 53c | 116.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 47c | 116.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 58c | 95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 46c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 60.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 46c | 57.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed No | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…e388backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…3ef3backed No | 53c | 41.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a21…0728backed Yes | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 47c | 30.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…044abacked Yes | 49c | 24.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked No | 52c | 21.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.