Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e87b96020ab0b8bbf399c6e454f32b2ace7a463bce2306070e8c21c19f8c1f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 58c | 1,674$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.9 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 68c | 958.64$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.76 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 68c | 588.3$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 56c | 355.94$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 313.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 42c | 214.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 161.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 38c | 156.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 146.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 65c | 132.04$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 118.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 117.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 112.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 37c | 105.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 77c | 89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 88.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 62c | 72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 69.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 21c | 59.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 45c | 59.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed Yes | 38c | 57.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 55.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 62c | 47.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 36.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 33.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 53c | 33.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 76c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 49c | 32.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 61c | 29.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 47c | 29.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 52c | 27.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 61c | 26.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 52c | 26.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 66c | 25.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 45c | 25.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 43c | 25.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 62c | 24.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 51c | 22.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 53c | 22.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 59c | 21.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 58c | 21.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 21.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.