Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e8a73b036babfeb79ffa0e52d1b6b7b67027ec2202f90862afc63950e844413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 39c | 743.61$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.76 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 38c | 350.62$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.31 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 262.49$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 41c | 211.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 180.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 62c | 154$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 151.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…6824backed Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 139.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 131.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 77c | 129.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 125.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 121.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 119.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 112.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 103$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 75c | 101.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 61c | 99.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 66c | 96.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 89.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 78.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 41c | 77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 42c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 34c | 68.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 60c | 67.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 39c | 62.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 61.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 61.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 41c | 58.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 24c | 54.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 63c | 50.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 37.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 37.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 33.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…26c3backed No | 75c | 32.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 30.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 30.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 37c | 29.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 60c | 25.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 18.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.