Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72656f20fe68352d35e9dbf202f5e0ed72e84d283634496de75629ca4c6c2fb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 43c | 759.02$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.38 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 265.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 16c | 256.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 42c | 245.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.18 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 56c | 226.06$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.93 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 8c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 38c | 208.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 190.07$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 188.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 53c | 157.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 155.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 147.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 71c | 133.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 130.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 47c | 127$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 118$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 53c | 115.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 110.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 90.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 89.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…3204backed Yes | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed No | 34c | 75.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 75.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 75.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 66.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 29c | 63.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 54c | 58.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 55.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 54.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…6824backed Yes | 39c | 52.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 51.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 49.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b1…40b6backed No | 59c | 47.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 37c | 46.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 50c | 46.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b3…d03bbacked Yes | 47c | 46.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 70c | 43.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 70c | 43.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 42.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 39.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 67c | 38.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 48c | 37.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 35.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 55c | 34.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 46c | 33.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…0f96backed No | 58c | 31.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396e…c3a7backed No | 55c | 31.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 36c | 30.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 70c | 29.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…80bcbacked Yes | 44c | 29.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 52c | 29.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 29.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…6c4dbacked Yes | 44c | 26.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 56c | 24.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 53c | 24.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 60c | 24.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 69c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 20.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…6c88backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…3342backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 52c | 19.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…c401backed No | 59c | 18.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…7a3ebacked Yes | 78c | 18.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 17.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 63c | 17.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.