Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ec5383936ae9318089f9510958af9125a2c2ac71e2f38f9bc51d2c9024a2ae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 540.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 4c | 317.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 272.37$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 6c | 208.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 30c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 189.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 188.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 166.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 163.19$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 16c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 139.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 137.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 133.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 131.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 130.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 73c | 129.21$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 74c | 128.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 125.11$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 77c | 122.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 112.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 31c | 100.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…5313backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 90.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…05f7backed Yes | 50c | 88.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed No | 77c | 73.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 26c | 70.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 69.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 32c | 67.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 31c | 66.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 26c | 64.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…1bf4backed Yes | 39c | 63.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 32c | 60.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 54.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 53.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 53.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 30c | 49.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…6fbdbacked Yes | 28c | 49.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 47.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 44.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…223abacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…89e0backed Yes | 37c | 39.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 40c | 34.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 73c | 32.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 34c | 31.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e2…db13backed No | 75c | 29.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…dc92backed No | 75c | 27.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 64c | 23.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 18.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked No | 74c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.