Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa87dec697ae7a8812a8c022941abac8feff7997f2c90036732384bbc37142a4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3644…5313backed Yes | 2c | 1,043$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 936.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 22c | 681.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.06 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked No | 69c | 617.57$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.23 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 539.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 21c | 252.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 205.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 79c | 203.5$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 188.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 56c | 186.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 15c | 174$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 168$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 79c | 159.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…223abacked Yes | 31c | 147.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 144.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 57c | 143.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 139.11$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 22c | 134.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 15c | 133.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 124.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 118.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 65c | 117.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 114.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 111.72$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 109.08$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860b…85bdbacked Yes | 40c | 108.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 22c | 105.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 31c | 99.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 20c | 97.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 95.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 29c | 94.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed No | 67c | 93.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 88.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 21c | 79.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…a5b0backed Yes | 14c | 77.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 30c | 73.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…be03backed Yes | 24c | 71.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 32c | 69.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 22c | 68.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 29c | 65.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 63.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 62.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 60.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 59.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 19c | 58.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 56.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 52c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 49.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…9446backed Yes | 23c | 45.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 32c | 44.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 44.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 42.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 24c | 40.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 72c | 37.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…05f7backed Yes | 47c | 37.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 29c | 36.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 39c | 32.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2c…5e16backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 46c | 29.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 27.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 26.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 53c | 26.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 50c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 62c | 23.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 74c | 19.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.