Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7e5e91bff472fffb74701248cabc0aeb5dfbe002c76ed4d1950e99d641c939
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 6c | 1,646$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.22 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 5c | 1,449$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.9 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked No | 20c | 1,161$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.11 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 47c | 854.76$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.64 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 25c | 680.61$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.49 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 5c | 587.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.05 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 553.65$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 73c | 471.03$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 25c | 381.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 6c | 312.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 6c | 299.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.48 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 263.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 192$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 73c | 175.89$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 17c | 172.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 158$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 47c | 157.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 144.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 11c | 132.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 128$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 75c | 125.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 15c | 124.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 123.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 72c | 122.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 11c | 109$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 18c | 99.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 35c | 97.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 90.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 25c | 87.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 83.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 72.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 29c | 69.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 27c | 64.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee2…e69bbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 33c | 59.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 79c | 54.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 27c | 50.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 43.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 74c | 40.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 57c | 38.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 44c | 38.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 45c | 35.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 67c | 34.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7937…e074backed Yes | 70c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 21.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 54c | 20.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 76c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 72c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.