Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cb96347332e0b019c53d74d805379e11d0f3a460643e5f7ef651a0b92990502
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 685.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 628.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 560.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 8c | 500.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 352.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 326.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 11c | 323.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…56a3backed No | 78c | 293.1$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 26c | 266.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 16c | 228.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 226$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 206.09$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 199.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 11c | 194.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 185.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 182.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…1bf4backed Yes | 29c | 173.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 69c | 169.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 167.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 158.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 129.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945b…178bbacked Yes | 16c | 121.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 115.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 109.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 19c | 102.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 27c | 100.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 86.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 13c | 86.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 20c | 78.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fef…e307backed Yes | 22c | 77.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 17c | 76.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 71c | 73.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 31c | 70.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…e17fbacked Yes | 27c | 68.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 28c | 53.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 23c | 53.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 29.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…33d4backed No | 65c | 22.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 67c | 14.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.