Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ec678ded09baac670b9594345e49e4522138a963a647bc4c421134c5fa3c178
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 25c | 421.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 61c | 300.85$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 247.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 202.62$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 24c | 185$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 21c | 180.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 79c | 179.23$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 168.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 163.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 154.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 151.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…206dbacked Yes | 37c | 119.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 24c | 111.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 105.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 104.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 99.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 22c | 95.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 72c | 92.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 25c | 92.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 24c | 87.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 85.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 84.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 84.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 80.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 72.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 70.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 25c | 68.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 28c | 65.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 57.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…f521backed Yes | 33c | 46.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 58c | 41.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 40.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 39.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 39.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 29c | 38.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 34c | 38.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 36.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 34.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 33.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 65c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 26.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 25.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 18.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 63c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 66c | 15.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.