TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,194
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,194 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes40c2,461$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.571,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No59c909.31$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.672,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No57c328.2$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.582,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes41c323$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.241,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No60c291$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.42,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No61c290$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.11,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No57c247.88$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c244.36$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes42c241.11$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.41,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4035…206dbacked Yes49c240.01$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.42977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+41.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No61c240$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.620347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No61c230.53$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.421,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked No67c217.19$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0818368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes42c212.98$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.835,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c174.08$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.435,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes43c141.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3371649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c139.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.88,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c116$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4343559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0056…7d9abacked Yes12c96.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes34c87.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes42c83.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b35…bb20backed Yes55c81.79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458263.4%52 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes41c75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.814,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c71.4$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.878,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.622645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes55c59.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.993,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No61c56.72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1216272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes42c56.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.915449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.442,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No60c53.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2713959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9248…6955backed Yes57c53.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306442.2%27 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd590…dd98backed Yes41c52.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.961154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes44c49.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0481855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes43c48.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes41c47.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2787437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No59c46.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8933746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes43c45.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5830136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd276…b615backed No60c44.97$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.99366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf81b…9fddbacked No47c44.36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No46c42.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.221,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes36c41.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.932,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes44c41.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3316440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed No43c41.45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6323941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1546457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No44c38.09$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.494,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No67c37.49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3741051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e90…2005backed Yes41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No67c34.12$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2635264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes40c33.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.321,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No58c31.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0922849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No64c31.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3245675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.16,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.331766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1210547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x987f…b37dbacked Yes40c27.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1210133.7%34 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95e5…c974backed No61c25.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.052564%16 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No43c24.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.293,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No63c24.84$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1617633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No57c22.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5818043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe0b…17a4backed Yes63c21.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.761030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No57c20.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.721,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No62c20.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.71,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.184,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3a…cf77backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.