Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x903dfbe1994c4a454453ef48ca9e56a360122364d29f6ff10e27f68f91781c84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 2,461$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.57 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 909.31$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.67 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 328.2$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 41c | 323$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 291$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 290$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 247.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 244.36$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 241.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…206dbacked Yes | 49c | 240.01$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 61c | 240$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 230.53$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 67c | 217.19$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 212.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 174.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 43c | 141.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 139.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 116$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7d9abacked Yes | 12c | 96.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 87.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 83.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 55c | 81.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 71.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 61c | 56.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 42c | 56.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 60c | 53.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 57c | 53.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…dd98backed Yes | 41c | 52.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 44c | 49.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 48.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 41c | 47.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 59c | 46.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 43c | 45.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd276…b615backed No | 60c | 44.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…9fddbacked No | 47c | 44.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 46c | 42.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 41.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 44c | 41.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 43c | 41.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 38.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 67c | 37.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…2005backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 67c | 34.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 33.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 58c | 31.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 31.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 40c | 27.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…c974backed No | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 43c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 63c | 24.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 57c | 22.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…17a4backed Yes | 63c | 21.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 20.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 20.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.