Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7ae9f3b3bfc8ae5bf95629f33a8ee4e74ea22f471fb8182fe33c21f7eb34668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 450.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 394.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 380.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 21c | 308.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 22c | 264.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 22c | 262.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 260.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 14c | 245.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 20c | 212.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 174.8$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 15c | 173.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 20c | 152.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 151.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…f91bbacked No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 19c | 97.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 96.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 22c | 92.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 22c | 83.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 58c | 80.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 23c | 75.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 20c | 71.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 64.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 41c | 61.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 80c | 59.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 80c | 56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 50.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 49.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed No | 80c | 22.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.