MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3edcfb651f75d07bdfa39070237e878f5b43f1ea03d023176a823aeb525e8c61

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $170,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $171,222

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,860 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Under	49c	143,548$70,339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73,209.5	411	49.1%202 W · 209 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over	51c	42,630$21,741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,741.3	135	34.1%46 W · 89 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	51c	29,290$14,929 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,928.96	650	50.3%327 W · 323 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over	51c	24,147$12,315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,315	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-3.9wins	-0.21per pick	42cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Under	49c	13,000$6,365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,635	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+20%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	51c	10,563$5,387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,386.6	323	48.9%158 W · 165 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Over	51c	10,150$5,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,176.5	86	33.7%29 W · 57 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Over	51c	10,150$5,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,176.5	57	26.3%15 W · 42 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	+221.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Over	51c	7,105$3,624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,623.55	235	38.3%90 W · 145 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	51c	6,138$3,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,115.75	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	51c	4,830$2,463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,463.34	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over	51c	4,000$2,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,040	217	48.4%105 W · 112 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Over	51c	2,253$1,149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,149.09	151	48.3%73 W · 78 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040.11	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Over	51c	1,189$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.39	116	56.9%66 W · 50 L	+8.1wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over	52c	1,013$527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.83	840	49.4%415 W · 425 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over	51c	916$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.16	750	49.7%373 W · 377 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf590…382dbacked Over	51c	800$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	54cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Under	48c	616.33$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.49	80	32.5%26 W · 54 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Over	53c	530$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.9	114	50.9%58 W · 56 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over	47c	511.74$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-4.6wins	-0.18per pick	49cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Over	52c	450$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed Under	49c	406$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Over	52c	400$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Over	53c	300$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	166	44.6%74 W · 92 L	-6.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Over	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	-5.5wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Under	47c	299.96$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.98	116	47.4%55 W · 61 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over	51c	294.12$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-6.8wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-18%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Over	52c	278.81$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.28	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	51c	253.68$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.25	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18d5…2bb6backed Over	54c	232$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Over	53c	231.97$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.16	135	49.6%67 W · 68 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a96…0d7cbacked Under	49c	207.01$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.15	33	63.6%21 W · 12 L	+4.5wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	118	38.1%45 W · 73 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7583…0469backed Over	51c	156.86$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d87…71cebacked Over	52c	133.89$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd63e…0d52backed Over	52c	123.08$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	91	61.5%56 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under	46c	118.34$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.9	1,041	50.1%522 W · 519 L	+17.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	49c	107.61$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.23	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce5…af2ebacked Under	50c	105.53$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.16	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	51c	103.78$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.93	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91a…4ea7backed Over	51c	101.96$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+4.5wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+39.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2,261	45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L	+57.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Under	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	135	60%81 W · 54 L	+15.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x86f2…a659backed Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.26per pick	45cpaid	+59.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9044…c2f5backed Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	478	50.4%241 W · 237 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over	51c	94.25$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.33	1,269	47.4%602 W · 667 L	-31.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Over	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	224	50.4%113 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over	52c	92.32$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.46	307	50.2%154 W · 153 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under	48c	82.25$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.77	105	39%41 W · 64 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Over	32c	76.3$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.38	53	54.7%29 W · 24 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under	48c	72.91$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.91	218	47.7%104 W · 114 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…e449backed Over	51c	70$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Under	49c	70$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.7	496	49.8%247 W · 249 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over	50c	68.34$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.17	672	50.1%337 W · 335 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2d…e660backed Over	52c	67.31$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+4.6wins	+0.15per pick	43cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	48c	65.43$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.21	678	49.3%334 W · 344 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Under	50c	51.42$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.71	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9401…38cbbacked Over	51c	51.14$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.08	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Under	49c	49.02$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x808d…f5debacked Over	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfce…5c3ebacked Over	51c	48.49$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.73	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65fc…c072backed Over	53c	47.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5676…7da7backed Over	53c	43.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.06	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaed4…4cc9backed Over	53c	41.51$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Over	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	153	51.6%79 W · 74 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	395	53.7%212 W · 183 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed Over	51c	39.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under	49c	34.13$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	144	42.4%61 W · 83 L	-9.9wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeadd…4da1backed Over	51c	33.67$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.17	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.27per pick	47cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Under	47c	32.28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.11	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf137…9341backed Over	51c	30.49$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Over	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-5.1wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf175…cabcbacked Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba00…747cbacked Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-8.1wins	-0.26per pick	55cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5a6a…98ddbacked Over	54c	28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	55cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa870…df70backed Over	51c	23.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	45cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4cf…9332backed Over	53c	20.32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	61cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	403	52.4%211 W · 192 L	+15.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	294	50.7%149 W · 145 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed Over	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dcd…74c6backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+36.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
NRFI: Athletics vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Athletics won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event