Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $270–275 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fab5b9e37b83455927ecc065f8da7d94244949e84d511678a2562f32f70cf45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 22c | 1,532$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.75 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d26…3286backed Yes | 73c | 618.21$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3121…dec8backed Yes | 20c | 593.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 65c | 565.94$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.65 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 9c | 240.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3496backed No | 68c | 184.55$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…25d8backed No | 69c | 179.87$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed Yes | 30c | 164.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 70c | 156.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed No | 69c | 153.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…9d6abacked Yes | 50c | 141.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed Yes | 19c | 135$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 79c | 107.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…95a0backed Yes | 10c | 104$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…b8acbacked Yes | 10c | 104$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +395.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…eed9backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…6e44backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 46c | 86.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 69c | 83.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 39c | 64.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 44c | 54.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 51.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x895c…6a26backed Yes | 61c | 50.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 77c | 48.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc22…4557backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 67c | 21.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 80c | 15.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…30bdbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $270–275 in 2025?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $250–255 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $255–260 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $260–265 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $265–270 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275–280 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $280–285 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $285–290 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $290–295 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $295–300 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$245 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$300 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.