Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $280–285 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd92d52effbe65cd5b38eced054255916ef818b086000287b827bf5bfb468a5d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x573c…1b61backed Yes | 13c | 795.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…5f5bbacked Yes | 18c | 552.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 544.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Yes | 13c | 526.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3121…dec8backed Yes | 13c | 517.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 10c | 472.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +225.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 12c | 288$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 13c | 280$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 13c | 262$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 16c | 249.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…878cbacked Yes | 17c | 243$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…e0fbbacked Yes | 19c | 242.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 12c | 237.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2793…4e49backed Yes | 10c | 204.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 196.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 8c | 140.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed Yes | 14c | 138.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 129.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…6631backed Yes | 11c | 113.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 12c | 109.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…51d9backed Yes | 17c | 106.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…6ec4backed Yes | 13c | 98.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…dcccbacked Yes | 14c | 85.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffd…0a51backed Yes | 14c | 82.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $280–285 in 2025?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $250–255 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $255–260 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $260–265 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $265–270 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $270–275 in 2025?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275–280 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $285–290 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $290–295 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $295–300 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$245 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$300 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.