Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275–280 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d181552a329f1fddfb311935857b5b181b0faad541fd206fca1b1f87bf32c70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 17c | 1,473$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.74 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 17c | 872.67$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.28 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 14c | 800.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3121…dec8backed Yes | 18c | 719.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.95 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Yes | 17c | 515.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 12c | 495.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +225.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 15c | 361$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 291.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 22c | 229.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 74c | 222.53$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 213.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…f7c6backed No | 74c | 184.67$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…c515backed Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 77c | 127.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed Yes | 11c | 126$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb350…047abacked No | 77c | 123$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475c…e904backed Yes | 12c | 102$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes | 17c | 100.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 97.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 15c | 93.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…9d6abacked Yes | 27c | 89.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 84.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…53e4backed Yes | 19c | 79.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 25c | 79.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 26c | 65.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…3c01backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 22c | 48.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…7ee1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…acd7backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 74c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 15.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $275–280 in 2025?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $250–255 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $255–260 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $260–265 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $265–270 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $270–275 in 2025?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $280–285 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $285–290 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $290–295 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at $295–300 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$245 in 2025?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$300 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.