Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fe577922dfcf942a32aa28f6b42e764e4fdc45ccc5bd09555185caad9a971c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 527.6$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 325$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 37c | 307$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 267.63$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 218.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 211.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 151.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 57c | 148$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 53c | 127.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 106$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 45c | 103.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 101.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 36c | 98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 55c | 87.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 77.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 55c | 69.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 65.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 60c | 64.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 43c | 64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 60c | 51.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 54c | 48.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 46.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 45c | 40.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 49c | 37.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 51c | 37.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes | 63c | 34.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 44c | 30.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 50c | 29.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 53c | 28.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 60c | 28.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 40c | 27.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 44c | 25.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 44c | 25.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 44c | 25.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 44c | 25.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 65c | 23.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 63c | 22.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 52c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 19.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 61c | 19.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 18.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.