Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5ae9c40261a20373ab133c1e373011578b436aa687f761c9fcf3dbb16056ad9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 28c | 1,080$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.39 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 476$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.72 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 374.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 65c | 264.25$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 262.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 66c | 249$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.76 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 240.16$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 69c | 226.64$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.31 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 211.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 210.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 177.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 160$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 41c | 151$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 139.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 106.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 106$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 23c | 105.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 75c | 100.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 97.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 70c | 91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 90.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 86.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 79.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 26c | 64.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 16c | 63.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 80c | 62.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 58.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 69c | 55.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 54.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf85…f199backed Yes | 27c | 52.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 47.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 31c | 47.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 51c | 40.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 59c | 28.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 25.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…898dbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 77c | 23.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 65c | 23.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 73c | 20.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 18.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 65c | 17.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 64c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.