Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x401af9578c52e751581f0571ac359ac943bbc00fd12336b369ef54af3be11488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 2,228$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.23 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,861$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 33c | 1,303$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.07 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 18c | 1,099$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.95 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 1,077$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 77c | 701.57$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.04 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 80c | 637.15$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.59 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 524.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 79c | 500$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.8 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 495.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 465.84$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.43 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 79c | 433$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 64c | 350.2$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.69 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 331.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 258.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.25 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 241.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 225.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 80c | 186.96$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 186.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 17c | 184.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.56 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 74c | 183.84$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 171.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 29c | 142$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 46c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 13c | 111.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 109.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 106.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 18c | 98.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 22c | 96.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 91.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked No | 39c | 89.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 84.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…4b7fbacked No | 15c | 78.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 37c | 78.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 19c | 66.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 20c | 54.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 39.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 35c | 37.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 42c | 29.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 29.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 57c | 22.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 20.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e68…d2a6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.