TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,069

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,518 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes41c1,099$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.3142036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes37c753.76$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.971,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No67c651.49$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.151,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes42c585.1$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.724,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c496$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.544,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No79c455.6$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.932,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes35c370.51$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.878,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf381…40c2backed Yes21c363.82$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.439436.2%34 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes60c338.2$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.219042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes8c251.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9238138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No59c250$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.51,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes51c240$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.331,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c239.88$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.758,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c233.3$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes43c215$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.451,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No78c205$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.184,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes34c200.83$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No59c197.39$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.071,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked Yes58c192.54$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3242762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05b9…0e6dbacked No34c189.39$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.394358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No65c188.27$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.782,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c187.31$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.374,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No60c184$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.122,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c175$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.825,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed Yes12c174.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5417020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes43c172$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No60c169.35$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.024,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c159.79$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.559,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2bc…1485backed Yes53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.56346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No38c146.59$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.374926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed Yes12c140.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8629219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No53c133$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.151,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes19c128.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6456322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb84d…3307backed Yes64c120.23$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.341435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes33c119$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2791444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85ac…fce6backed Yes17c115.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes68c98.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3130849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae33…7804backed No52c94.13$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.067857.7%45 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c91.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.693,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No62c87$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0689557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes17c78.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5240741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes33c77.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5642643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce9…520bbacked Yes42c76.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.23520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No38c70.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.831,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No68c70$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.629351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No64c66.64$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.733,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.383,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c62.71$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.614,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.454253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5c4…8346backed Yes42c55.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1840%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes60c54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.414151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c53.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No59c53$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.581,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No58c48.57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.261,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c47.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.343,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No39c45.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4519345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes43c42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0662137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No68c41.13$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.194,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No60c40.26$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1351156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e83…5839backed Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b7…cdb7backed No60c39.9$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.963357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.383,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes36c35.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes52c34.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.913,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No35c34.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.11,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No61c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5828360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.141,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x365a…6120backed No46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3473…e864backed Yes41c28.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6611134.2%38 W · 73 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No63c27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9725560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No58c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.212,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No50c25.82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.914,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4606…f3cebacked No59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.252356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6041…b027backed No50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.433060%18 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes57c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No60c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0030…1327backed No64c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.641978.9%15 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick72cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked No72c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.427754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes50c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.081,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf70e…3204backed Yes66c21.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No64c20.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.313,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3edf…e863backed No64c20.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.294050%20 W · 20 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x166f…dcfebacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51bb…df40backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5e…35c9backed No66c19.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.817350.9%88 W · 85 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes55c19.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.771,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No60c19.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7431866%210 W · 108 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No66c17.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0946857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No64c15.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6525258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No68c15.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9237465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No78c14.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.31,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.