MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4022b7de9cb574a351918523e6988df533d45bc035d1e79373202bcbed0e0cec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 17,229$4,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,659.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 16,725$8,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,362.45 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41a8…ff67backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 11,538$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 10,346$6,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,928.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 7,793$2,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,979.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 3,566$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.31 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 3,519$2,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 2,975$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.35 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 2,161$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.94 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 1,132$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.17 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 1,034$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 999.98$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.15 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b94…b660backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 622.93$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.22 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 477.11$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.1 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 402.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.47 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 386$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 299.82$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 189.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 174.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 167$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 125.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 115.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 66.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…1aa4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 55.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 53.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 51.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 48.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…f4ffbacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 30c | 37.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 30.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 29.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…9917backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…2b09backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.