MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab806c0c8d1dbc57b12554cea4bbadef5e66980fcc8c56e9ff3e3e2e2703f81b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 3,715$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 3,450$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 792.45$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.99 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 725.75$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 716.27$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 527$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.47 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcae9…fc54backed Baltimore Orioles | 20c | 495.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.62 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 312.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 253.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.07 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 169.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 79c | 141.62$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 97.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 77.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 73.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 65.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 65.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 62.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 61.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22bc…b0b2backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 49.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 25.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.