MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2c79c390539e05d0b2cf3daa78966aa0e37abac226903ef30622ad50205019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 4,496$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 2,440$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 1,972$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.03 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 864.92$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.04 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 689.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 629.26$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 541$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.63 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 77c | 540$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 417$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 270.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.96 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 253.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.38 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 243$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 199.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 134.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 130$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 21c | 113.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 105.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 79.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 69.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e60…536bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 69.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 52.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 43.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 40.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 35.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Baltimore Orioles | 80c | 26.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 25.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 23.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.