MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2068c1f7104ce891c8602a0e19c970f5a9aeecb962128cc2dd72b0810dde1677
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,265$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.45 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 1,032$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.27 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 46c | 967.35$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.69 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 875.42$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 46c | 866.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.16 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 38c | 648$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.07 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 521.44$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.79 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 475.38$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 451$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 449.07$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 46c | 327$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.58 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 323.91$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Under | 36c | 277.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 224.22$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 41c | 170.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 35c | 143.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 51c | 98.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 69c | 82.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 79c | 78.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 68c | 72.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 62c | 69.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 56c | 62.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 33c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 45.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 45.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 42.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 55c | 22.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.