Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x402ec1030dc3c3d529bb175ec676a98c864fa59fdc83c5f14472835454c63f83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 7,955$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.92 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 69c | 5,799$4,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9af…7807backed Over | 10c | 3,710$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 3,152$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 42c | 1,614$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.38 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 41c | 1,299$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.59 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 38c | 893.59$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.56 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…8360backed Over | 36c | 562.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 4c | 420$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed Over | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Over | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 34c | 328.79$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…ec08backed Over | 29c | 302$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 15c | 293.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 44c | 248.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…b9e9backed Over | 11c | 223.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 37c | 108.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 26c | 96.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…99f7backed Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Over | 45c | 88.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…e8a8backed Under | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b0…07bfbacked Over | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…71e4backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Over | 39c | 43.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under | 57c | 41.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Under | 79c | 23.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 4.5this page
- AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.