Serie A · resolved market

AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x540e8f622f58faef6313f9c89960474215bdd62c2f692a9233aaa8ad60ead180

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $44,932
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,906

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,932 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x11cf…2674backed Over	70c	9,349$6,540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,809.23	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Under	34c	7,084$2,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,407.91	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	34cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb737…98b9backed Over	69c	5,586$3,846 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,739.79	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	67cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under	30c	3,452$1,036 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,035.73	91	50.5%46 W · 45 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	31c	2,395$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742.38	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under	30c	2,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	31c	1,500$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465	366	30.9%113 W · 253 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	30c	1,471$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.69	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Over	65c	1,420$929 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$491.12	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Over	68c	1,200$816 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384	36	50%18 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	30c	1,108$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.76	932	52%485 W · 447 L	+11.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over	66c	900$594 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under	30c	800$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	101	52.5%53 W · 48 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	31c	700$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217	137	54%74 W · 63 L	+9.9wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over	69c	652.17$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.17	89	57.3%51 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	66c	579.89$383 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.06	969	42.3%410 W · 559 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over	69c	498.55$344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.55	79	54.4%43 W · 36 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over	68c	441.18$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.18	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Over	70c	428.57$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.57	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+2.4wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+56.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under	30c	400$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	285	56.1%160 W · 125 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under	30c	300$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under	30c	300$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	184	59.2%109 W · 75 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Over	69c	253.62$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.62	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.17per pick	60cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under	30c	240$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under	30c	240$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	168	51.2%86 W · 82 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed Over	68c	220.59$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.59	109	51.4%56 W · 53 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb008…03d8backed Over	68c	220.35$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.51	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	59cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1963…8122backed Over	69c	202.9$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.9	10	90%9 W · 1 L	+2.9wins	+0.29per pick	61cpaid	+46.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	30c	200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	229	47.6%109 W · 120 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Under	33c	200$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-3.3wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under	30c	180$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	158	47.5%75 W · 83 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x827f…7f59backed Over	69c	144.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.93	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x102f…9b6ebacked Under	32c	140$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.8	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed Under	32c	134$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.88	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under	30c	120$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	89	48.3%43 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under	30c	120$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a2…e265backed Over	66c	100$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	69c	100$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	107	44.9%48 W · 59 L	-9.8wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked Over	67c	94.99$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.35	116	66.4%77 W · 39 L	+14.6wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+27%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	33c	94.33$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.83	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	-10.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over	67c	91.68$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.25	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	31c	88$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.86	910	43.3%394 W · 516 L	-14.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	24c	85.19$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	248	49.2%122 W · 126 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under	32c	78.13$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	55	32.7%18 W · 37 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6132…7665backed Under	33c	77$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.41	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	69c	73.63$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.99	152	53.9%82 W · 70 L	-14.7wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Under	30c	60$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	113	54%61 W · 52 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Under	30c	60$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	81	51.9%42 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	30c	60$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	136	50.7%69 W · 67 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under	30c	60$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	123	50.4%62 W · 61 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Under	31c	60$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Under	32c	59.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-5.1wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Over	68c	51.47$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.47	88	54.5%48 W · 40 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	68c	51.47$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.47	345	53.9%186 W · 159 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Over	69c	50.72$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.72	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-34%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	67c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+4.3wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Under	33c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	69cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77ec…4f9cbacked Over	68c	47$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.04	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Under	32c	45.63$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x804d…078cbacked Over	69c	43.9$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.61	20	75%15 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	72cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7f…0a55backed Over	69c	43.09$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.36	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25c3…eb62backed Over	68c	41$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.12	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bd8…a28ebacked Over	69c	40.77$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.64	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	32c	39.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	179	55.3%99 W · 80 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over	68c	38$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.16	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Under	33c	38$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Over	68c	36.76$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.76	88	56.8%50 W · 38 L	-7.5wins	-0.09per pick	65cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f6c…ac71backed Over	68c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.52	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	58cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9b…0bc0backed Over	68c	34$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.88	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea68…ff92backed Under	34c	34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-3.3wins	-0.16per pick	54cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd243…2dcfbacked Over	68c	29.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	28	75%21 W · 7 L	+5.6wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd289…98b5backed Over	68c	28$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.96	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.25per pick	55cpaid	+49.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6468…e03dbacked Over	67c	27$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.91	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	58cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	70c	24.31$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.29	69	72.5%50 W · 19 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68cc…24adbacked Over	67c	23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.59	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.18per pick	55cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72df…42f6backed Over	68c	21$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.72	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a94…31e6backed Over	67c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	57cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9942…5b7dbacked Over	68c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+2.3wins	+0.25per pick	64cpaid	+45%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x276f…bfb5backed Over	68c	17.46$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.59	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6203…5192backed Over	67c	16$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.28	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	55cpaid	-56%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x945c…94bdbacked Over	68c	15.53$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.97	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5this page
AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5Over won
AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5Over won
AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event