Tennis · resolved market
Santos: Luis Guto Miguel vs Hernan Casanova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40310fe28e32d5b9fc9d85025b39315131c87194dd4974f84b0ebb88a57531f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hernan Casanovaof Luis Guto Miguel, Hernan Casanova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0da…f3f0backed Luis Guto Miguel | 42c | 13,013$5,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,464.14 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hernan Casanova | 60c | 7,162$4,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,894.5 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Luis Guto Miguel | 47c | 3,208$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 5c | 1,910$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hernan Casanova | 63c | 1,484$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.65 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Luis Guto Miguel | 7c | 1,320$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Luis Guto Miguel | 7c | 1,224$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Luis Guto Miguel | 26c | 1,161$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 302 | 25.8%78 W · 224 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Luis Guto Miguel | 45c | 1,112$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 940 | 68.1%640 W · 300 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Hernan Casanova | 54c | 706.06$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.84 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Hernan Casanova | 54c | 648.14$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.14 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Hernan Casanova | 55c | 566.64$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked Hernan Casanova | 74c | 519.97$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.57 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Hernan Casanova | 55c | 462.22$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hernan Casanova | 53c | 396.64$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.71 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Luis Guto Miguel | 7c | 353.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Hernan Casanova | 59c | 333$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Hernan Casanova | 68c | 326.47$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.31 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Hernan Casanova | 64c | 302.45$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Hernan Casanova | 58c | 290$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 351 | 87.7%308 W · 43 L | +66.4wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5baf…3e56backed Luis Guto Miguel | 38c | 245.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 658 | 40.9%269 W · 389 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Luis Guto Miguel | 29c | 243.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 46c | 218.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 23c | 206.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Luis Guto Miguel | 16c | 195.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Hernan Casanova | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Luis Guto Miguel | 16c | 178.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 41c | 157.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 11c | 152.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…1414backed Luis Guto Miguel | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 42c | 118.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Hernan Casanova | 76c | 118$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Hernan Casanova | 62c | 114.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe031…5c08backed Luis Guto Miguel | 19c | 107.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 735 | 49.8%366 W · 369 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Luis Guto Miguel | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Hernan Casanova | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Luis Guto Miguel | 26c | 84.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf182…112bbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 46c | 79.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 301 | 50.2%151 W · 150 L | -15.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 40c | 75.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Hernan Casanova | 55c | 74.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Hernan Casanova | 68c | 56.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…cebfbacked Hernan Casanova | 71c | 56.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 671 | 78.7%528 W · 143 L | +49.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…4874backed Hernan Casanova | 73c | 55.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 918 | 80.5%739 W · 179 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Hernan Casanova | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Luis Guto Miguel | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x782d…8211backed Luis Guto Miguel | 46c | 41.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 704 | 56.8%400 W · 304 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Luis Guto Miguel | 31c | 41.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Hernan Casanova | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 382 | 62.3%238 W · 144 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3744backed Hernan Casanova | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,104 | 66.9%739 W · 365 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6161…c834backed Hernan Casanova | 62c | 27.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc09…f937backed Hernan Casanova | 55c | 26.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…bfa7backed Hernan Casanova | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 282 | 65.6%185 W · 97 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Hernan Casanova | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Hernan Casanova | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Hernan Casanova | 57c | 22.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Hernan Casanova | 73c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…d68bbacked Hernan Casanova | 59c | 19.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Santos: Luis Guto Miguel vs Hernan Casanovathis page
- Miguel vs. Casanova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.