Tennis · resolved market
ITF Southaven: Maxwell Exsted vs Quinn Vandecasteele
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40378feb2f4b6017e87def2a7685a33b4bfd900c78507bbb6d4b4ca21fe5c685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maxwell Exstedof Maxwell Exsted, Quinn Vandecasteele
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Maxwell Exsted | 31c | 10,200$3,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,035.6 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Quinn Vandecasteele | 66c | 4,395$2,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,921.06 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Quinn Vandecasteele | 66c | 1,485$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.92 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Quinn Vandecasteele | 57c | 1,404$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.58 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Quinn Vandecasteele | 72c | 1,360$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.86 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Quinn Vandecasteele | 70c | 1,019$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.17 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Maxwell Exsted | 75c | 697.13$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.03 | 226 | 62.8%142 W · 84 L | +15.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Quinn Vandecasteele | 65c | 618.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.19 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Quinn Vandecasteele | 70c | 600$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Maxwell Exsted | 20c | 510.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.65 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…9f45backed Maxwell Exsted | 38c | 348.8$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.01 | 229 | 39.3%90 W · 139 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2e…37cabacked Maxwell Exsted | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Quinn Vandecasteele | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Quinn Vandecasteele | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Quinn Vandecasteele | 61c | 102.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed Maxwell Exsted | 35c | 95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Quinn Vandecasteele | 70c | 67.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Quinn Vandecasteele | 70c | 56.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Maxwell Exsted | 29c | 52.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 250 | 48.8%122 W · 128 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Quinn Vandecasteele | 70c | 49.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Quinn Vandecasteele | 34c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 429 | 46.4%199 W · 230 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Quinn Vandecasteele | 26c | 44.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163d…7c69backed Quinn Vandecasteele | 59c | 33.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 147 | 15.6%23 W · 124 L | -32.8wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Maxwell Exsted | 76c | 22.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Maxwell Exsted | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Maxwell Exsted | 77c | 22.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…cebfbacked Maxwell Exsted | 77c | 20.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 671 | 78.7%528 W · 143 L | +49.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Quinn Vandecasteele | 67c | 18.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.