Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4041528a78f7712014eaa5c37c1b7fd568dd53bf42737ff7cfadc6d65dcfb30b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 49c | 4,155$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.64 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked Over | 51c | 3,797$1,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.36 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 48c | 458.24$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 2,311 | 39.4%910 W · 1,401 L | -83.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…185dbacked Over | 53c | 439.4$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.8 | 634 | 58.4%370 W · 264 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 46c | 407.89$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.26 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd2…da00backed Under | 62c | 323.73$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 44c | 272.05$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 55c | 255.5$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 1,134 | 31%352 W · 782 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c07…08c5backed Under | 50c | 218.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Over | 50c | 192.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 759 | 42%319 W · 440 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…86b4backed Under | 56c | 163.08$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 191 | 57.1%109 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 121.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 46c | 115.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 49c | 98.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 286 | 52.8%151 W · 135 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Under | 60c | 97.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e2…6c60backed Over | 54c | 96.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Over | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 211 | 40.8%86 W · 125 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…9551backed Over | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 35c | 73.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | -33.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 46c | 65.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 415 | 44.6%185 W · 230 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe303…401abacked Over | 60c | 58.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,606 | 17.5%281 W · 1,325 L | -245.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 726 | 37.7%274 W · 452 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…7e5dbacked Over | 52c | 37.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 204 | 63.2%129 W · 75 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 47c | 36.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1,728 | 29.5%509 W · 1,219 L | -123.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…1084backed Over | 51c | 36.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7586…6490backed Under | 51c | 34.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 51c | 29.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 416 | 51.2%213 W · 203 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 501 | 45.7%229 W · 272 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…b470backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -9.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 46c | 26.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a0…436dbacked Over | 50c | 26.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 390 | 44.6%174 W · 216 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed Over | 52c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 63.7%116 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5)Team Vitality won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonTeam Vitality won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality - Game 1 WinnerTeam Vitality won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality - Game 2 WinnerTeam Vitality won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.