NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x406dad3baa78cdbc9db1f8d208d53236e09734a43b9bdf917cd17f1685b5d8fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85df…9124backed Over | 3c | 3,100$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 7cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Over | 1c | 2,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 53c | 1,587$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.11 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…f58ebacked Under | 49c | 1,327$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,213$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…8db6backed Over | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Over | 79c | 620$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.8 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 24c | 572.42$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.21 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Under | 47c | 344.25$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.45 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…1454backed Over | 20c | 205.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Over | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 80c | 155.97$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 150.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…0a2abacked Over | 53c | 132$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…b49abacked Under | 47c | 117.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 46c | 94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 46c | 76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 44c | 75.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 46c | 71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Over | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 46c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 44c | 50.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…4f13backed Under | 80c | 49.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,198 | 46.8%561 W · 637 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…f7dcbacked Over | 78c | 17.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Clippers (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- 1H Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. ClippersGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Clippers (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Clippers (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Clippers (-5.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.