NBA · resolved market
Spread: Clippers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d782a8e8f5710b80f9c615fef70ff57b7bf791f0cc686dbd294cbc93950aff4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Clippers, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Clippers | 52c | 60,000$31,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,200 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Grizzlies | 48c | 34,649$16,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,017.61 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies | 48c | 18,328$8,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,485.75 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 11,049$5,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,689.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Grizzlies | 51c | 5,457$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,683 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Clippers | 51c | 5,433$2,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790.61 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Clippers | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Clippers | 51c | 2,144$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.53 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Grizzlies | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 1,611$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.08 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers | 48c | 1,555$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Clippers | 51c | 790$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.9 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Clippers | 51c | 647.06$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Grizzlies | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Grizzlies | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Grizzlies | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Clippers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Clippers | 51c | 413.73$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Clippers | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…11a6backed Grizzlies | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 203.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Clippers | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies | 48c | 192.64$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 159.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed Clippers | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Clippers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Grizzlies | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 400 | 35.5%142 W · 258 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Clippers | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Clippers | 51c | 67.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Grizzlies | 49c | 67.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Grizzlies | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Clippers | 51c | 59.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 50c | 52.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a0…67cabacked Grizzlies | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Grizzlies | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Clippers | 49c | 47.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Clippers | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Grizzlies | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Clippers | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Grizzlies | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…b729backed Grizzlies | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Clippers | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Clippers (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Clippers (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- 1H Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. ClippersGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Clippers (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Clippers (-4.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.