TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Royals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Nationals, Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Royals61c8,015$4,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8891,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals60c7,750$4,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,093.032,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Royals23c7,019$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.891,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Nationals40c6,390$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,833.9834245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Royals34c6,359$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.639,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37be…c646backed Nationals61c5,072$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,972.416450%32 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Royals41c4,983$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.0316947.3%80 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nationals39c4,243$1,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,588.351,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Nationals59c3,297$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.4488549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd805…0d78backed Royals46c3,273$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.011926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-39.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Royals64c3,136$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00036047.5%171 W · 189 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Nationals48c2,544$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.9854345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals60c2,475$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.672,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Nationals39c2,243$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.357542.7%32 W · 43 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+63.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Royals28c2,138$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.6738444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Royals58c2,071$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20013946.8%65 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Royals60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Nationals49c1,829$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.1222948.9%112 W · 117 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Royals50c1,811$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3219…4f05backed Nationals38c1,666$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.893053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca7f…fb42backed Royals32c1,601$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5205954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcab0…4cd3backed Nationals47c1,565$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.959447.9%45 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Royals30c1,460$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.1241747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Nationals39c1,300$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.9816349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Nationals39c1,282$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.0528042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffbf…0824backed Nationals38c1,105$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.1955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89cd…f03bbacked Royals62c1,100$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6821838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-31.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Royals42c1,076$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.1318349.2%90 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df7…baefbacked Royals61c1,025$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6256144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x461f…7a07backed Royals60c1,023$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.5212043.3%52 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f36…4e9cbacked Royals45c1,004$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45013254.5%72 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Nationals39c999.98$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.0556451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Royals61c985.82$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.3570946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e8…0bdbbacked Royals62c960$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa687…23e2backed Royals62c940$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Royals15c933.85$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.431,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Nationals38c884.63$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.4798149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Royals30c822.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25019239.1%75 W · 117 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Royals33c800.73$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.7173149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8c…550fbacked Nationals38c795$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.9560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Nationals69c725.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.9314966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed Royals25c683$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.758042.5%34 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5555…d3d0backed Royals29c666.21$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.29550.5%48 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Royals32c571.19$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6243946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Royals61c569.34$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.31,05150.4%530 W · 521 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Nationals39c547.03$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.6914047.9%67 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Nationals39c512.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8256351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Nationals39c512$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.321,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Royals58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Royals57c484.47$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.1519852.5%104 W · 94 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Royals58c452.5$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.4525551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Royals59c444.01$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26012248.4%59 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c53…c9b0backed Royals30c435.34$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1306425%16 W · 48 L-8.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Nationals64c426.89$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5680955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Nationals37c419.98$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.591,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Royals38c406.46$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4453448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Nationals61c373$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.2510744.9%48 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Royals45c341.06$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.346,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Royals38c316.67$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.234,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Royals62c302.54$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5721656%121 W · 95 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Royals53c299.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15931347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals38c299.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.991,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Royals25c294.83$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5632754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Royals36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018155.8%101 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d04…7102backed Royals43c259.19$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123540%14 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95de…42d5backed Nationals77c258.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.956960.9%42 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Nationals39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.414443.2%19 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9b…5722backed Royals61c255.74$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610057%57 W · 43 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Royals63c253.97$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16099951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Royals36c253.57$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.081,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee4…b575backed Nationals40c252.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6351245.1%231 W · 281 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Royals44c252.45$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9221246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Royals60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1239…975dbacked Royals46c245.13$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.65728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ab…fbb5backed Royals55c241.82$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13316654.8%91 W · 75 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Royals17c229.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8931547.3%149 W · 166 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0912…9a36backed Nationals70c225$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals40c220.28$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.171,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Nationals47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10634051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Royals61c199.98$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9918249.5%90 W · 92 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals37c199.97$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.983,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Royals19c190$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.122849.1%112 W · 116 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaea…7918backed Royals26c184.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.95650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+143.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee1d…cc3abacked Royals62c180.34$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.812254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Royals56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de9…4ab1backed Royals26c175$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.32729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Royals30c173.34$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7210459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Royals61c171.72$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.751,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Royals32c170$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.426650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6163…8507backed Royals61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025551%130 W · 125 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05f5…066dbacked Royals61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Nationals53c162$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7868769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Nationals39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.566751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Nationals46c143.27$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3717243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x954b…ad5ebacked Royals35c140.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Royals29c137.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4021748.4%105 W · 112 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb39e…5182backed Royals30c133.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409639.6%38 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.