Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x408b333aac722905b6b96b71218b14a8fd5c687783127ac6e9553e65a3d38681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalmychataof L1ga Team, Kalmychata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Kalmychata | 66c | 3,501$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.86 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked L1ga Team | 48c | 3,500$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.67 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12a…f637backed L1ga Team | 49c | 2,964$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.32 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Kalmychata | 53c | 2,821$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.01 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…7706backed Kalmychata | 52c | 2,313$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.13 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Kalmychata | 50c | 2,214$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed L1ga Team | 47c | 1,806$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.9 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Kalmychata | 47c | 1,682$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.51 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…e618backed L1ga Team | 51c | 1,660$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed L1ga Team | 3c | 1,251$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc24…c8c4backed L1ga Team | 61c | 1,137$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed L1ga Team | 2c | 1,111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc33…633ebacked L1ga Team | 28c | 1,033$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…f205backed L1ga Team | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed L1ga Team | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kalmychata | 45c | 891.09$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.73 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed L1ga Team | 55c | 715.14$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.27 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Kalmychata | 68c | 706$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.86 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…0ac1backed L1ga Team | 32c | 700$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Kalmychata | 45c | 612.36$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.29 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed L1ga Team | 8c | 585.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Kalmychata | 47c | 530.49$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.25 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e9…b8cfbacked L1ga Team | 75c | 528.54$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed L1ga Team | 10c | 514.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed L1ga Team | 54c | 440.99$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.14 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Kalmychata | 63c | 378.26$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.18 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Kalmychata | 48c | 370.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.91 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Kalmychata | 46c | 344.6$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed L1ga Team | 31c | 333.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9425…f025backed L1ga Team | 50c | 315$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Kalmychata | 53c | 283.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Kalmychata | 74c | 252.45$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…7bb3backed L1ga Team | 35c | 241.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kalmychata | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Kalmychata | 55c | 214.69$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.89 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked L1ga Team | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…82bcbacked L1ga Team | 63c | 198.62$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed L1ga Team | 55c | 193.15$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kalmychata | 49c | 193$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Kalmychata | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…e1d6backed L1ga Team | 64c | 190$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed L1ga Team | 56c | 178.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x674a…3600backed L1ga Team | 49c | 177.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Kalmychata | 33c | 168.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.23 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed L1ga Team | 31c | 164.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Kalmychata | 44c | 158.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…eda5backed Kalmychata | 70c | 143.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed L1ga Team | 17c | 142.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked L1ga Team | 51c | 134.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee8…6c2ebacked L1ga Team | 57c | 119$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked Kalmychata | 47c | 115.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked L1ga Team | 74c | 101.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…528fbacked L1ga Team | 28c | 100.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…0bd2backed L1ga Team | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked L1ga Team | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed L1ga Team | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…a34cbacked L1ga Team | 64c | 94.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed L1ga Team | 57c | 91.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed L1ga Team | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…c74fbacked L1ga Team | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kalmychata | 46c | 84.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Kalmychata | 55c | 83.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed L1ga Team | 68c | 80.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…c017backed L1ga Team | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…b8e6backed L1ga Team | 44c | 60.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed L1ga Team | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Kalmychata | 64c | 46.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Kalmychata | 34c | 42.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked L1ga Team | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…d894backed Kalmychata | 65c | 40.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked L1ga Team | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…9779backed L1ga Team | 51c | 39.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e88ebacked L1ga Team | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked L1ga Team | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…a852backed Kalmychata | 70c | 38.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Kalmychata | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…ce7cbacked L1ga Team | 62c | 32.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed L1ga Team | 66c | 20.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0142…b168backed L1ga Team | 59c | 17.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata - Game 1 WinnerKalmychata won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.