Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: James McCabe vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x410665ca26ef0973f5f82ab3191e17268ee78313a6dbc045c69e7558dff01186
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kjaerof McCabe, Kjaer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Kjaer | 40c | 3,681$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.33 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed McCabe | 47c | 2,993$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.88 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked McCabe | 48c | 520.6$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed McCabe | 28c | 431.24$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked McCabe | 46c | 413.77$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.69 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed McCabe | 49c | 400$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked McCabe | 52c | 350.27$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.4 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Kjaer | 59c | 338.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kjaer | 52c | 304.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.37 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Kjaer | 51c | 296.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.72 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed McCabe | 43c | 235.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Kjaer | 46c | 232.81$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.81 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Kjaer | 35c | 228.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Kjaer | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kjaer | 56c | 191.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kjaer | 39c | 167.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked McCabe | 36c | 154.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Kjaer | 55c | 142.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Kjaer | 32c | 123.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed McCabe | 60c | 121.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…8cadbacked McCabe | 43c | 117.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f07…4518backed Kjaer | 61c | 114.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Kjaer | 51c | 106.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed McCabe | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked McCabe | 69c | 88.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3225…e6c6backed McCabe | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…675bbacked Kjaer | 57c | 68.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 137 | 63.5%87 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Kjaer | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kjaer | 53c | 57.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked McCabe | 47c | 56.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Kjaer | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e2…9ff7backed McCabe | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked McCabe | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Kjaer | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Kjaer | 51c | 45.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Kjaer | 52c | 43.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 451 | 47.2%213 W · 238 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed McCabe | 49c | 41.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…7812backed Kjaer | 57c | 35.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc4…46c0backed Kjaer | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed McCabe | 43c | 33.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Kjaer | 55c | 33.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6131…d57cbacked McCabe | 48c | 27.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Kjaer | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…7553backed Kjaer | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…7426backed Kjaer | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.