Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x411207ae85a5671c06f268a2489fad6ff8491eaef9cd816d153b4ab4817468a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 739.47$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 549.63$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 63c | 385.98$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.53 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 352.15$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 309.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 32c | 266.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.5 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 50c | 219.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.47 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 213.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.06 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 76c | 185.09$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.61 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 157$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed No | 78c | 138.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 138$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.57 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 63c | 131.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 117.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 65c | 113.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 104.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 16c | 98.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 92.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 79.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 79.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 20c | 74.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 69.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 66.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 26c | 63.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 62.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 59.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 48c | 58.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 57.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 46c | 53.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 39c | 50.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 70c | 49.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 47.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 33c | 45.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 45.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 44.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 43.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 28c | 39.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 39.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 35.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 35c | 34.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 30.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 68c | 30.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 29.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 70c | 27.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 41c | 25.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…e96abacked No | 64c | 23.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 45c | 23.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 68c | 20.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 67c | 20.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 62c | 19.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…6114backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.