Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe7ffebba8a99dc77aa7571368586b80ca1697e20074177f79f6cfb158649ce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 47c | 1,673$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 639.12$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 633.99$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 48c | 615.92$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.98 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 55c | 289.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 46c | 277.72$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.77 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 5c | 223.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 53c | 214.24$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 183.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 54c | 166.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 166.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 164.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 141.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 135$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 131.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 118.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 113$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 112.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 112.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 110.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 104.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 49c | 103.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 50c | 98.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 94.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 74c | 74.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 73.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 62c | 68.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 67.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 66.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 65.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 46c | 61.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 61.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 56c | 59.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 56.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 54.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 53.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 52.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 25c | 51.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 51.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 53c | 51.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 61c | 49.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 47.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 47.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 69c | 43.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed No | 53c | 38.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…672cbacked Yes | 53c | 38.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 36.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 51c | 35.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 48c | 32.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 29.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 54c | 29.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc0…5bf1backed No | 47c | 28.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 25.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 24.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 23.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 54c | 19.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…877fbacked Yes | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.