TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: 76ers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof 76ers, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$365,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$365,593

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $365,386 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed 76ers49c99,769$48,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,886.5943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed 76ers50c88,126$44,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,167.771,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Cavaliers50c72,822$36,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,467.682,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Cavaliers50c60,000$29,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,1003920.5%8 W · 31 L-11.0wins-0.28per pick49cpaid-58.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Cavaliers51c50,000$25,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,50017251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Cavaliers52c19,243$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,243.0120758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed 76ers48c18,201$8,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,736.71,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9331…4b41backed 76ers51c16,427$8,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,377.644245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers56c9,484$5,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,311.162,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers50c8,104$4,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,056.99,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd50c…4c72backed 76ers48c6,189$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3830…8fd9backed 76ers48c6,089$2,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,922.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4058…5496backed 76ers48c6,060$2,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,908.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71e7…1d8bbacked 76ers48c6,055$2,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,906.4580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d02…4eebbacked 76ers48c6,018$2,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.64683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+66.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbe0…3936backed 76ers48c5,897$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,830.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa872…d980backed 76ers48c5,644$2,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2de…e005backed 76ers48c5,556$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd098…8c03backed Cavaliers49c5,242$2,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,673.262070%14 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed 76ers50c5,006$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cavaliers49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5501,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa974…162fbacked Cavaliers52c4,317$2,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers49c4,299$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.233,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Cavaliers49c4,264$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.5432150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56e3…29b1backed 76ers48c4,233$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e76…db38backed 76ers48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked 76ers50c3,908$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.1516335.6%58 W · 105 L-12.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7e5…0c26backed 76ers48c3,606$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f4…d5c7backed Cavaliers52c3,600$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf42…d698backed 76ers50c3,332$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.9617031.8%54 W · 116 L-24.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x532f…6997backed Cavaliers52c3,289$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20bd…4c3dbacked 76ers48c3,200$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e22…d265backed Cavaliers52c3,200$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb647…181fbacked Cavaliers52c3,090$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa537…ce68backed Cavaliers52c3,080$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.4450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers49c2,979$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.692,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d80…3996backed Cavaliers52c2,900$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3ac…5afabacked 76ers48c2,400$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa722…9a51backed Cavaliers52c2,306$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.88580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+54.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53ca…005abacked Cavaliers52c2,249$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Cavaliers49c2,241$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.8165750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb7…8267backed Cavaliers52c2,230$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39f6…1747backed Cavaliers52c2,155$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d51…f592backed Cavaliers52c2,145$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dae…0de9backed Cavaliers52c2,132$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.36785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+69.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb88…7289backed Cavaliers52c2,123$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6224…4cb6backed 76ers48c2,100$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaa…788bbacked Cavaliers52c2,058$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…8ce5backed Cavaliers52c2,036$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.28785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick51cpaid+67.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x309e…43aabacked Cavaliers52c2,023$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe513…9e9dbacked Cavaliers52c2,022$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.56580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+57.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Cavaliers50c2,020$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.1559347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156e…6481backed Cavaliers52c2,013$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbb…38debacked Cavaliers52c2,011$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Cavaliers50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0004761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca8…0005backed Cavaliers52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+58%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc013…b51dbacked Cavaliers52c1,998$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed3…5426backed Cavaliers52c1,989$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf295…4761backed Cavaliers52c1,988$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x190a…6ae2backed Cavaliers52c1,966$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.681266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+35%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee9f…b134backed 76ers48c1,966$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.682030%6 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x92d1…8a29backed Cavaliers51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.786344.4%28 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Cavaliers48c1,950$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.9430351.8%157 W · 146 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3b…65a5backed 76ers48c1,935$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e2…2c81backed Cavaliers51c1,926$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.961275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4918…8573backed 76ers49c1,926$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.961145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01af…38f6backed Cavaliers52c1,899$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.52887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick50cpaid+73.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x880f…d5d4backed Cavaliers52c1,878$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.44560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ab…041fbacked Cavaliers52c1,878$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.44666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x170c…d3a8backed Cavaliers52c1,877$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Cavaliers50c1,793$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.52,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f50…5873backed Cavaliers52c1,784$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.32875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf597…bcd4backed Cavaliers52c1,737$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee73…c22bbacked Cavaliers52c1,699$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.52683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+64.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae8…9901backed 76ers48c1,685$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.79520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd700…72a4backed Cavaliers52c1,677$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a54…ddf3backed 76ers48c1,675$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-68.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ed3…cd54backed Cavaliers52c1,665$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.2650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb300…7ca8backed Cavaliers52c1,663$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9d…81c8backed Cavaliers52c1,655$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd2a…716abacked 76ers48c1,655$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f9…d288backed Cavaliers52c1,652$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4fa…6ef4backed Cavaliers52c1,645$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+46.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdbd…ac56backed Cavaliers52c1,643$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e54…44f0backed 76ers48c1,637$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f98…8751backed 76ers48c1,635$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1771…ee04backed Cavaliers52c1,635$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d6c…a2bebacked 76ers48c1,634$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb321…ecf0backed Cavaliers52c1,634$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.32771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+39%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff4b…a81bbacked 76ers48c1,625$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9a5…870fbacked 76ers48c1,625$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd1…5f06backed Cavaliers52c1,622$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x319f…5432backed Cavaliers52c1,589$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers55c1,373$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.888,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28d2…3821backed 76ers48c1,286$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.28633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c55…137abacked 76ers48c1,261$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.2850%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa51…a910backed 76ers51c1,251$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6384645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76e0…e446backed 76ers48c1,175$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d6…656dbacked 76ers48c1,165$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.240%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fc8…5100backed Cavaliers52c1,155$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+62.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.