NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f875e66b591fb6d56a16fe7d1684987b2118130e55a35941e5e5a11d2c2c0e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 40c | 2,764$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.7 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 59c | 1,542$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.11 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 44c | 978.33$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.6 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 900.38$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 45c | 824.41$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.86 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 577.78$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 481$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.5 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Over | 39c | 434.45$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.69 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…6cb6backed Over | 70c | 354$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.6 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…3f90backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 52c | 187.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…5f54backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Under | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 48c | 119.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 119.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 94.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 61c | 94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 63c | 94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 41c | 92.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 47c | 88.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…b6c7backed Over | 45c | 87.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 51c | 81.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 45c | 77.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 61c | 67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…9c40backed Under | 60c | 30.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Over | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 238.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. 76ersCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: 76ers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: 76ers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: 76ers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.